A Ruleta Puzzle Mystery Cache

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wildargs: The puzzle idea seemed promising when I opted to use it as a base for another puzzle, but in working at it, I began to doubt the effectiveness of the Pelayos' scheme. I think this one is better retired.

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Hidden : 9/17/2015
Difficulty:
3.5 out of 5
Terrain:
2 out of 5

Size: Size: micro (micro)

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CACHE IS NOT AT POSTED COORDINATES!

THE PLAN: At its simplest, the Gonzalo Pelayo roulette strategy (La Fabulosa Historia de Los Pelayos, Ivan and Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo, Random House Mondadori, Barcelona 2003) consists of the following:
1. To break even, a single-number bet must “hit” ON AVERAGE at least once every 36 spins (pay-off is 36:1).
2. Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo simulated an “unbiased" random wheel and analyzed results for 2 million spins.
3. It was NOT uncommon for a number to “win” multiple times within 36-spin sequences.
4. He derived Limit Scores for such repetitions to occur over time, within a 5% probability threshold.
5. Wheels that produced repetitions more frequent than the 5% threshold were suspected of "bias".
6. He then let the computer simulate contingency thresholds for multiple bets, from one ball to nine.
7. His "family" travelled the globe in search of "biased" roulette wheels: spending months recording thousands of results, wheel by wheel. Active periods may produce 35 results per hour for some tables, but not all.
8. If a wheel was found to be biased, each family member persistently bet on the statistically favored numbers and usually won over time. Their first big success was in the Grand Casino de Madrid, where all wheels trademarked "Hispanica" displayed the same bias. Those wheels were used even in England.
Note that while extreme imperfections may result in as many as six adjacent numbers on a "biased" wheel (e.g. if slightly tilted), the table layout places those numbers in "orphaned" positions, while high-probability loner numbers on the wheel may wind up side-by-side on the table layout! Note also that Pelayo's practice demands robot-like diligence and is conceived for European tables with just one Zero and 36:1 payoffs.

The required diligence proved difficult to manage, as some Pelayo team members were susceptible to distraction. The proximity of attractive girls, even intuition, at times distracted from the task of those rigid bets over thousands of balls. One of the group, nicknamed, Balon, sometimes took "liberties" in his approach!
On one such occasion, Balon failed to get all his bets back in place before the "rien ne va plus" call and missed a win on #21. What's worse, he'd already blown another spin on #1 and his stake was dwindling fast. He made a quick decision: to reduce his bets to just SIX (as long as they exceed the above combined 6-number bet Threshold of 130) and reduce the number of loners - to just go for the most intuitive. Hmm... See if you can reconstruct his panicked strategy and test your results.


PUT YOUR GUESS TO THE TEST! ;-)certitude.
Enter your numbers, strongest to weakest, as follows: "#,#,#,#,#,#" (with quotes).

Additional Hints (Decrypt)

Vg'f nyy nobhg gur Jurry naq gur Npghny Qngn. OGJ, bapr arne TM, orjner gubfr jbbqra fgnvef. Orfg gb qevir hc, pyvzo bire naq - pnershyyl - ybbx hc! Vg'f whfg nabgure oynpx ovfba.

Decryption Key

A|B|C|D|E|F|G|H|I|J|K|L|M
-------------------------
N|O|P|Q|R|S|T|U|V|W|X|Y|Z

(letter above equals below, and vice versa)


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